France's First Round of General Elections Begins, Far-Right Party Rises... Macron's Alliance Faces Possible Defeat

The first round of voting for the French National Assembly (National Assembly, 577 seats) began on Monday, July 1st. The far-right National Rally (RN) has emerged as a rising force, followed by the left-wing alliance. President Emmanuel Macron's centrist ruling coalition is likely to suffer a major defeat with a significant reduction in the number of seats.

Following a major defeat to RN in the European Union (EU) parliamentary elections on June 9th, President Macron announced a snap general election in an attempt to stage a comeback (起死回生, Kishikaisei). While his intention was to leverage public anxiety about the far-right to attract undecided voters, the ruling coalition failed to gain momentum, exposing a deep decline in President Macron's popularity.

Recent polls show that RN (including an alliance with some members of the right-wing Republicans) enjoys the highest level of support. The left-wing alliance, "Nouvelle Union Populaire Ecologique et Sociale" (NUPES), composed of the far-left La France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, and the Greens, is in second place, with the ruling coalition trailing behind.

The key question is whether RN will ultimately secure a majority of seats. If RN wins a majority, Jordan Bardella, the leader of RN, is likely to be appointed Prime Minister.