Biden's Declaration of 'Ending the War': Hamas Leader's Assassination, Hopes for a Ceasefire, and America's Calculations

U.S. President Biden, following the killing of Hamas leader Sinwar by the Israeli military, stated that "now is the time to end the war," emphasizing the need for diplomatic efforts towards a ceasefire in Gaza. This statement highlights the reality that the Biden administration, facing the November presidential election, must contend with the impact of its response to the Palestinian issue on domestic U.S. politics.

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Sinwar's Assassination and Hopes for a Ceasefire

On October 17, the Israeli military announced the killing of Yahya Sinwar, the top leader of Hamas. President Biden reportedly conveyed his great satisfaction with Sinwar's assassination during a phone call with Prime Minister Netanyahu, stressing the need to move forward towards a ceasefire in Gaza. The Biden administration aims to leverage Sinwar's killing to urge Israel into ceasefire negotiations, addressing concerns over the humanitarian crisis stemming from the prolonged conflict and mitigating international criticism. Simultaneously, there is a discernible domestic political motive to prevent alienation among liberal voters and Arab Americans sympathetic to the Palestinian cause.

The Deep-Rooted Palestinian Issue and America's Complex Stance

The conflict between Israel and Palestine is a deeply rooted issue spanning over 70 years. Numerous intractable challenges remain, including the status of Jerusalem and the issue of Jewish settlements. The United States has traditionally supported Israel. The influence of pro-Israel lobbying groups and Christian evangelicals is significant, leading successive administrations to continue military and diplomatic aid to Israel. However, America's position is complex, as it also provides humanitarian aid to Palestine and acts as a mediator in peace negotiations. Specifically, under the Trump administration, pro-Israel policies, such as the relocation of the embassy to Jerusalem, became prominent, worsening relations with Palestine. The Biden administration has partially revised Trump's policies and is also working to improve relations with Palestine. However, it faces the difficult task of maintaining the alliance with Israel while striving for a resolution to the Palestinian issue.

Vice President Harris and Israel: The Possibility of a Stronger Stance

If Vice President Harris is nominated and wins the Democratic presidential nomination in the November election next year, it is suggested that she may take a stricter stance towards Israel. Harris does not have the same strong personal ties to Israel as President Biden. Furthermore, her close relationship with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party means she is more receptive to calls for conditional humanitarian aid to Palestine and for attaching conditions to arms supplies to Israel. Should a Harris administration come to power, relations with Israel could be more strained than they are currently. However, as Israel is a key ally for the U.S. in the Middle East, a major policy shift is unlikely.

Ukraine Aid and Israel Aid: Division within the Democratic Party

The Biden administration is attempting to secure support from congressional Republicans by packaging Ukraine aid and Israel aid together, but this strategy has drawn criticism from within the Democratic Party. The Democratic left, like the Republican right, is skeptical of expanding foreign engagement such as aid to Ukraine. Furthermore, there are growing voices expressing concerns over the casualties among Palestinian civilians due to Israel's Gaza offensive, and opposing arms supplies to Israel. To continue support for Ukraine and Israel, the Biden administration needs to resolve the divisions within the Democratic Party and unite support both within and outside the party. However, ignoring the claims of the Democratic left could lead to defeat in the presidential election.

President Biden's Challenge: Can He Regain Domestic and International Support?

President Biden faces the difficult task of building good relations with both Israel and Palestine and advancing peace negotiations. Whether ceasefire negotiations will materialize following Sinwar's assassination is uncertain. However, President Biden needs to demonstrate a proactive commitment to resolving the Palestinian issue in cooperation with the international community. Simultaneously, it is important to resolve the divisions within the Democratic Party concerning aid to Ukraine and Israel and to regain support both within and outside the party. President Biden's future actions will undoubtedly have a significant impact not only on the future of the Palestinian issue but also on U.S. domestic and foreign policy.