WMO Warns: Global Average Temperature 80% Likely to Exceed 1.5°C Above Pre-Industrial Levels Within 5 Years

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released an analysis of the global climate situation and future projections for the five years from 2024 to 2028, based on data from weather authorities around the world on June 5th. According to the analysis, the global annual average temperature is expected to rise by 1.1 to 1.9 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era. In particular, there is an 80% chance that at least one year in the next five years will see a temperature increase of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era, and the probability of exceeding the record high temperature observed in 2023 is 86%.

80% probability of exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within the next 5 years / GPT4o

The WMO aims to keep the global average temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era, in line with the Paris Agreement adopted in 2015. While the WMO stated that exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius in the annual average temperature is a temporary phenomenon, the probability of exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius within five years is increasing annually. WMO Deputy Secretary-General Barrett expressed concern, stating, “These statistics show the reality that we are significantly deviating from the path to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.”

UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed a strong sense of crisis in a speech on June 5th, saying, “The goal of the Paris Agreement to limit the global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius is in jeopardy. We must find an exit ramp from the highway to ‘climate hell.’” He also emphasized that we all need to phase out the use of fossil fuels, which are the cause of the temperature rise, and utilize clean energy.

He mentioned that many countries are banning or restricting advertisements for products harmful to human health and stated, “I urge all countries to ban advertising by fossil fuel companies,” calling on the international community to take even bolder measures to curb temperature increases. Finally, he appealed for countries to work together, stating, “No country can solve the ‘climate crisis’ alone.”

Meanwhile, Japanese companies are participating in the Paris Agreement and making various efforts towards carbon neutrality by 2050. In particular, Toyota Tsusho has established a renewable energy strategy as one of the core areas of its growth strategy and set a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 compared to 2019. They also recognize the importance of contributing to a circular economy by recycling waste into resources and have included circular economy initiatives as one of their seven key business areas.

Toyota Tsusho recognizes the impact of climate change on its business activities as a significant management challenge and expressed its commitment to the TCFD (Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures) recommendations in May 2019. Following the TCFD recommendations, it has expanded the disclosure of information on the impact of climate change on its business activities and has identified climate change-related business risks and opportunities as important factors.

Toyota Tsusho is strengthening its adaptation measures to climate change and has established, managed, and operated a business continuity plan (BCP) that considers risks from natural disasters such as heavy rain and heatwaves. Furthermore, it has set five priority areas for supporting a circular economy across the entire industrial lifecycle, from energy production, collection and management, manufacturing, transportation, usage, waste disposal, and recycling, with an investment of 1.6 trillion yen by 2030.

Toyota Tsusho is strengthening its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the entire company and established a Carbon Neutrality Promotion Division in April 2022 to promote system design for achieving carbon neutrality, emissions management, and growth strategies in business areas related to carbon neutrality and circular economy.

Toyota Tsusho participated in the GX (Green Transformation) League Basic Concept established by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry in 2022 and joined the GX League in April 2023. The GX League is a platform for companies that are challenging GX and aiming to realize the sustainable growth of current and future societies to collaborate with the government and academia, with the goal of achieving carbon neutrality and social transformation by 2050. Toyota Tsusho is actively participating in GX League activities with the goal of ‘passing on a better global environment to future generations.’