The Decline of the LDP in Local Areas and the Illusion of One-Party Dominance - An Examination through Analysis of Past Cabinet Approval Ratings

In the 1980s, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) enjoyed overwhelming support nationwide in Japan. At that time, the LDP's vote share reached over 90%, and it was virtually the only party supported by voters, especially in rural areas. This was because the LDP had brought prosperity to local areas through post-war economic recovery, agricultural technological advancements, and the improvement of social infrastructure. The trust that local residents placed in the LDP was unwavering.

However, this situation began to change drastically with the collapse of the bubble economy in the 1990s. At the time, the government implemented neoliberal policies such as flexible employment and reductions in workers' rights to protect large corporations and conglomerates. Young people and workers were pushed into harsh circumstances, leading to disillusionment with the established two-party system. As a result, the LDP's support significantly decreased, particularly in urban areas and among the younger generation.

Since the 1990s, the LDP's approval rating has continued to decline. In the 2022 House of Councillors election, the LDP's nationwide vote share was only 30%. However, despite these figures, the LDP still secured an overwhelming number of seats. This was due to the single-member district system, where a high level of support in certain areas resulted in a majority of seats.

Looking at local areas, a high level of support for the LDP still remains. However, this is not the same strong support as in the past, but rather a continuation of tradition and personal connections. In reality, the LDP's policies are contributing to the acceleration of population decline and community disintegration in local areas.

The reasons for the decline in support for the LDP lie in the realignment of political parties and political distrust since the 1990s, as well as the economic downturn following the burst of the bubble and neoliberal policies. A large-scale exodus has occurred, mainly among young people and in urban areas, and its impact continues to this day. Therefore, the current LDP dominance is a mere facade. If the opposition parties fight properly in the future, they can easily overcome the LDP.