Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and Strengthened Russia-North Korea Military Cooperation: Shaking the International Order

The war in Ukraine, triggered by Russia's invasion on February 24, 2022, has brought about significant changes in the international landscape. While the United Nations and the international community have condemned Russia's invasion and imposed strong economic sanctions, Russia continues its attacks on Ukraine.

Amidst this, Russia and North Korea are flaunting their close relationship by strengthening military cooperation. High-level exchanges between the two countries have become frequent, starting with Russian Defense Minister Shoigu's visit to North Korea in July 2022. In September, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visited Russia for the first time in four years and held a summit with President Putin.

During the summit, Kim Jong-un clearly expressed his support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, while President Putin hinted at military cooperation, including providing rocket technology to North Korea. Furthermore, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov visited North Korea and stated that Russia, North Korea, and China will strengthen their cooperation against the US.

The US has indeed detected evidence suggesting that North Korea has provided over 1,000 pieces of ammunition and military supplies to Russia, raising concerns about the growing closeness between the two countries. Moreover, analysis of remnants of North Korean-made ballistic missiles found in the war zone in Ukraine has raised the possibility of North Korea supplying military equipment to Russia.

As the military cooperation between Russia and North Korea solidifies, the international community's anxieties are growing. Concerns are mounting that North Korea, which possesses weapons of mass destruction and nuclear weapons, could intervene in the Ukraine situation, posing a threat to global peace and security.

Adding to the concerns, the UN Security Council's Panel of Experts on North Korea's sanctions has ceased its operations in May 2023. This raises worries about the international community's ability to monitor North Korea's violations of sanctions and its nuclear and missile development. Experts warn that the suspension of the panel's activities could lead to an increase in sanctions violations and a greater likelihood of North Korea accelerating its military cooperation with Russia.

Meanwhile, China's actions are also attracting attention. While maintaining some distance from Russia in the Ukraine crisis, China is aligning with Russia on North Korea issues. Although China opposes North Korea's seventh nuclear test, it has consistently opposed sanctions against North Korea by exercising its veto power alongside Russia on related UN Security Council resolutions.

China is North Korea's most important benefactor, both economically and politically. If North Korea leverages both China and Russia to strengthen its cooperation against the US, denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula will become even more challenging. Therefore, it is anticipated that the US and the international community will focus on containing China from Russia and North Korea.

Of course, given the substantial economic dependence of Russia and China, it is not easy for the West to impose effective sanctions on them. However, at the very least, the international community must unite in its efforts to prevent the development and proliferation of nuclear weapons by Russia and North Korea. The future direction of the international situation surrounding the Ukraine crisis, as well as the trajectory of the Russia-North Korea-China alliance, has emerged as a crucial issue requiring continuous monitoring.