Ukraine's New Strategy to Reclaim Crimea: Amphibious Operation?

July 2024 saw a series of significant political events that could shape the future of the Ukraine war. Firstly, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit officially declared Ukraine's NATO membership as "irreversible" for the first time. Additionally, in the US presidential race, former President Trump, the Republican candidate, faced an assassination threat. Trump's potential for victory has gained more attention due to the suggestion that he would "pressure the Zelenskyy administration to concede to Russia for an early peace."

Furthermore, US President Biden announced his decision not to seek re-election, while Vice President Harris declared her candidacy. The US's Ukraine policy is expected to be a key issue in the November 2024 US presidential election. Amidst these rapid changes, we have examined the future prospects of the Ukraine war.

At the end of July, a military official in Kyiv stated, "What is needed now is momentum on the battlefield." The Zelenskyy administration, considering the outcome of the NATO summit a diplomatic achievement, is poised to make a new military gamble after August. The biggest objective is the Crimean Peninsula, which has been effectively controlled by Russia since its illegal annexation in 2014. While Ukrainian forces initiated an offensive on the Crimean Peninsula in late August 2023, they have recently significantly escalated the attack scale. We can say that the offensive has "entered a new phase."

Sustained attacks utilizing maritime drones, missiles, and other means have led to substantial damage to Russia's air defense missile network. It's reported that the areas where the Russian military can provide complete air defense are extremely limited. The Black Sea Fleet has effectively withdrawn not only from the Black Sea but also from the Sea of Azov. The army units defending the peninsula are also mostly depleted as they are focused on defending the eastern front. Considering these circumstances, the Ukrainian military has formulated a "realistic plan" for retaking the Crimean Peninsula.

In late July, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, directly revealed in an interview with a British media outlet that they have a "realistic plan" to recapture Crimea. According to military officials, the plan the Commander-in-Chief has in mind is for Ukrainian troops to launch an amphibious assault on the Crimean Peninsula. The Ukrainian military believes that the Russian forces no longer have the capacity to thwart such a landing. If the amphibious operation commences, it would not be a mere temporary recapture but the beginning of a full-fledged liberation operation. If this amphibious operation is launched, it would signify the commencement of a second counteroffensive by the Ukrainian forces following the failed large-scale counteroffensive in the autumn of 2023.

Meanwhile, there are analyses suggesting that due to the protracted nature of the Ukraine war, the Russian military is experiencing a missile shortage and is relying on cheaper drone attacks. The Russian military continues to employ the "Shahed" suicide drones acquired from Iran in its attacks. On August 3rd, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy condemned Russia for using at least 1,961 Shahed drones in attacks thus far.

However, Ukraine is also strengthening its drone operations. In January of this year, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence announced that it would procure drones worth approximately 7.9 billion yen from 16 companies. Furthermore, President Zelenskyy decided to exempt drone component imports from customs duties in June, pushing forward with the development of more powerful drones. Ukraine is also developing unmanned submersibles for use in sea attacks. In July, the head of the Ukrainian Security Service revealed in an interview with CNN that they had used their domestically developed unmanned submersibles to attack the bridge connecting Crimea and Russia.

These unmanned submersibles are called "Sea Baby" and were also used in the July attack that damaged a Russian landing ship at the Novorossiysk naval base in southern Russia and the attack on a Russian tanker off the Crimean coast.

In this manner, the Ukrainian military is fighting back against the Russian military through new strategies and weapon development. The future direction of the Ukraine war hinges on whether the Ukrainian military's amphibious assault to recapture Crimea is successful and how the Russian military responds. Given the weakened Russian air defense network and the vulnerability of Crimean defenses, will the Ukrainian military succeed in its amphibious operation? We need to keep a close eye on the situation that unfolds.