ICC Issues Arrest Warrants for Russian Defense Minister and Chief of General Staff… Has the Collapse of the Russian Military Begun?

The International Criminal Court (ICC) announced on June 25, 2024, that it had issued arrest warrants for former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov on charges including war crimes in connection with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed the news and expressed hope, but given that the ICC previously issued an arrest warrant for President Vladimir Putin without it being carried out, it remains uncertain whether these warrants will actually be executed.

The situation surrounding the Russian military is becoming increasingly chaotic. Approximately a year ago, President Putin appointed Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov as the supreme commander of the invasion of Ukraine. But was this decision a success? What was the actual state of the Russian military at the time?

Last January, President Putin made the unprecedented decision to appoint Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov as the supreme commander of the invasion of Ukraine. This is interpreted as a reflection of the difficulties and stalled progress the Russian military was experiencing in Ukraine. Since last autumn, Russia has faced a Ukrainian counteroffensive and has not achieved any notable victories on the eastern front. Meanwhile, hardliners leading mercenary groups have gained influence within Russia, leading to constant criticism of the military.

President Putin likely hoped that appointing Gerasimov as supreme commander would improve the situation, including logistical issues. However, the chances of this happening appear slim in reality. Experts believe that President Putin's decision was based on a "misconception" that he could achieve military success through Gerasimov's leadership.

Gerasimov is known as an advocate for "hybrid warfare" combining cyberattacks and conventional combat. He is credited with leading the successful annexation of Crimea in southern Ukraine in 2014 and subsequent Russian military operations in Syria. He has been considered a military elite since the Soviet era and, unlike Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who lacks military experience, he has played a practical role in the military leadership.

However, there are few reasons for optimism about Gerasimov's future as supreme commander. The Russian military lost the Kharkiv region in eastern Ukraine to a Ukrainian counteroffensive last autumn and retreated from Kherson in the south. They have not achieved any significant victories on the eastern front. Weapon and ammunition supplies are inadequate, and soldiers are being sent into battle with insufficient equipment, leading to low morale and domestic criticism. Although Gerasimov appointed three deputy commanders, including former supreme commander Sergey Surovikin, their specific roles remain unclear.

The Russian military has suffered about 100,000 casualties amidst supply shortages, and it seems unlikely that a mere reorganization will drastically improve the battlefield situation. Despite this, Gerasimov's appointment as supreme commander is believed to be more of a political decision by President Putin to protect the Russian military from the rising influence of hardliners leading mercenary groups rather than a strategically sound move.

The Russian military has faced far greater difficulties than anticipated in Ukraine at the beginning of the war, and concerns about a protracted conflict are growing. Even after Gerasimov's appointment as supreme commander, the situation on the battlefield has not significantly improved. If the expected offensive fails, the Russian military could face an even more precarious situation.