Russia is showing signs of preparing for a long war after its invasion of Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin dismissed Sergei Shoigu, the country's defense minister, on February 12 and appointed Andrei Belousov, a former first deputy prime minister who had been in charge of economic affairs, as the new defense minister. This appointment of an economic expert to head the Defense Ministry in a national crisis is considered an unusual move.

The newly appointed Defense Minister Belousov is a civilian, not a military official, and has been active in the economic sector for a long time. He previously served as Minister of Economic Development and Trade and First Deputy Prime Minister, and has been involved in defense projects such as defense industry innovation and drone development. This appointment seems to reflect President Putin's intention to mobilize Russia's economy and defense industry in preparation for a long war.

Western sanctions have hit the Russian economy, forcing it to cut defense spending. As the war drags on, the need to efficiently utilize limited resources and overhaul the defense support system has grown. The Putin administration has been working to modernize the defense industry while evading external sanctions, but the Shoigu regime has reportedly faced difficulties in conducting the war.

Some expect improvements in the Russian military's capabilities under the leadership of Defense Minister Belousov. Belousov has been driving innovation in the defense industry, focusing on the development of advanced weapons such as drones. However, most experts believe that a change in leadership at the Defense Ministry alone will not be enough to reverse the tide of the war.

This shake-up in the Defense Ministry is seen as a display of the Putin regime's determination to wage a long war both domestically and internationally. It is also seen as a signal that Russia is building a mobilization system that encompasses the economy and the entire defense industry, based on a confrontation with the West. It is interpreted as an attempt to enhance the country's ability to sustain the war through organic cooperation between the economy and the military.

It is also worth noting that Shoigu, the former defense minister, has been appointed secretary of the Security Council, which is headed by President Putin. This appointment has been attributed to the departure of Nikolai Patrushev, the former secretary, from the operational line. In this way, Putin has strengthened his direct control and completed the establishment of a wartime regime.

As the war in Ukraine drags on, it is expected that Russia will continue to mobilize its regime and resources. As sanctions continue, it is highly likely that Putin's power base will be strengthened. Some have suggested that this shake-up in the Defense Ministry should be seen as a wartime arrangement.