Why Did Russia Appoint an Economist as Defense Minister Amidst the War?

Russia is showing signs of preparing for a protracted war following its invasion of Ukraine. This is because President Vladimir Putin dismissed Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on the 12th and appointed Andrei Belousov, who previously oversaw economic affairs, as the new defense minister. Appointing an economic expert to lead the Ministry of Defense during a national crisis is considered an unusual move.

The newly appointed Defense Minister Belousov is a civilian, not a military official, and has a long history in the economic field. He previously served as Minister of Economic Development and Trade and First Deputy Prime Minister, and has been involved in defense projects such as military industry innovation and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) development. This appointment appears to reflect President Putin's intention to mobilize the Russian economy and defense industry in preparation for a prolonged war.

Western sanctions have dealt a blow to the Russian economy, inevitably leading to cuts in the defense budget. As the war drags on, the need to efficiently utilize limited resources and overhaul the military support system has grown. Although the Putin administration has strived to modernize the defense industry while circumventing external sanctions, it is reported that the Shoigu administration faced difficulties in conducting the war.

Some anticipate an improvement in the Russian military's capabilities under Defense Minister Belousov. This is because Belousov has spearheaded innovations in the defense sector and focused on developing advanced weapons, including unmanned aerial vehicles. However, most experts predict that a mere change in leadership at the Ministry of Defense will not be enough to turn the tide of the war.

This personnel reshuffle at the Ministry of Defense is interpreted as a demonstration of the Putin administration's resolve to wage a protracted war, both domestically and internationally. It is also seen as a signal that Russia is establishing a mobilization system encompassing the economy and defense industry, based on its ongoing confrontation with the West. It is interpreted as an intention to enhance the war's sustainability through organic cooperation between the economy and military.

Meanwhile, it is noteworthy that former Defense Minister Shoigu was appointed Secretary of the Security Council, which is directly under the President. This is attributed to the departure of former Secretary Patrushev from the operational front lines. This means that Putin has strengthened the presidential direct control system, thereby completing the establishment of a wartime system.

As the war in Ukraine drags on, Russia's mobilization of its regime and resources is expected to continue. As sanctions persist, it is highly likely that President Putin's power base will further solidify. Some speculate that this personnel reshuffle at the Ministry of Defense should be viewed as a wartime deployment.