2024 US Presidential Election: Rally Size vs. Realistic Win Prediction - Harris Appears Favored, But Don't Count Trump Out?

The US presidential election is just a week away from the November 5th vote, and the battle between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is a closer race than ever before. Currently, it's difficult to predict who will win, but in terms of the number of participants at campaign rallies, Harris might have the upper hand.

The Harris Campaign Appeals Through Rally Size

In the final stages of the election campaign, the Harris campaign is employing a strategy that emphasizes the large number of participants at its rallies. This can also be seen as a subtle jab at Trump, who exaggerated the number of attendees at his inauguration ceremony in 2017. Harris frequently posts images and videos on social media comparing the size of her rallies to Trump's, showcasing her strong mobilization capabilities.

For example, the rally Harris held at an airport in Detroit in August was packed, with many supporters attending. However, Trump countered by claiming that it was a "fake" rally with inflated attendance numbers using AI. This kind of rebuttal from Trump seems to conversely prove that Harris's rallies were indeed large.

Furthermore, Harris's rallies often attract celebrities, such as former First Lady Michelle Obama, increasing their publicity. This "celebrity" effect is also thought to have contributed to the increased size of the rallies.

Incumbent Advantage? Examining the Presidential Election Based on Past Data

However, the outcome of the presidential election is not determined solely by the size of rallies. Looking at past data, incumbent presidents tend to have an advantage in reelection campaigns. Since World War II, 7 out of 11 incumbent presidents seeking reelection have won (63.6% win rate).

The reasons why incumbent presidents have an advantage include the following points.

* Overwhelming name recognition: High media exposure as president during the election period results in high public recognition.

* Party unity: Strong contenders rarely emerge in the primaries, making it easier to unite the party.

* Status quo bias: Voters without strong grievances tend to vote for the same candidate as before.

In particular, the incumbent president's approval rating is an important indicator. If the approval rating falls to the 30% range in an election year, reelection is said to be difficult. Past examples include President Carter (Democrat) in 1980 and President Bush Sr. (Republican) in 1992, both of whom failed to win reelection with low approval ratings.

Economic conditions are also an important factor. If the economy worsens and public economic dissatisfaction increases, the incumbent president is at a disadvantage. For example, in the 2020 presidential election, the impact of the novel coronavirus caused unemployment rates to surge, hindering Trump's reelection.

Biden vs. Trump Rematch - Insights from Past Rematches

The 2024 presidential election is likely to be a rematch between President Biden and Trump. In past presidential elections, there have been six rematches between the same candidates, but none in the last half-century. The most recent rematch was the 1956 contest between President Eisenhower (Republican) and Stevenson (Democrat), with the incumbent Eisenhower winning.

Looking at examples of past rematches, incumbent presidents tend to have an advantage. However, in the 2024 presidential election, Biden's low approval ratings and the unstable economic situation present challenging circumstances for the incumbent.

Harris in the Lead? Complacency is Dangerous

Currently, judging from the scale of campaign rallies and media reports, Harris appears to be in the lead. However, considering past data and the incumbent's advantage, Trump still has a considerable chance of a comeback.

The outcome of the presidential election will largely depend on future economic conditions, the election strategies of both candidates, and voter trends. The race will remain captivating until the very end.